The deal season is upon us with our inbox full we look at tips on what phishing emails look like. Considering the cost of living has been increasing, many Australians are likely to be on the lookout for some money-saving deals. Unfortunately, cyber criminals are well aware of this and will often find ways to exploit Australians.

ACCC Scamwatch data reveals that as of October 16 million dollars was lost to phishing scams in 2022.This is over a 300 per cent increase to2021 when over four million dollars was lost to phishing scams. Research from 2022¹ of Avast, a leading global digital security and privacy consumer brand by Gen™ (NASDAQ: GEN), also found that phishing scams are the most experienced scams for Australians, with 72.9% having reported receiving or seeing one even if they didn’t fall for it.

Stephen Kho, cyber security expert at Avast, says, “given how vulnerable many can be, the likelihood of accidentally opening a phishing email and clicking on a link that is a scam may be higher than usual”.

“Cyber criminals will likely take advantage of people this holiday season by sending and posting fake offers, claiming to sell expensive gifts at extremely low prices. Alternatively, emails designed to look like well-known and trusted sites could hit people’s inboxes. They can also disguise themselves as well-known charities and encourage users to donate money instead of giving physical gifts.

“Other common phishing emails claim to include an invoice or describe a billing problem and could be more effective during the pre-holiday season when people make more purchases than usual and therefore expect more shipments. These emails can lead to spoofed landing pages, prompting people to enter their financial information, for example. 

“Cyber criminals may also send out more fake bank alerts. Many banks will alert customers if they detect any suspicious activity or the account is about to be overdrawn. Phishers use these helpful services to try and convince people to “confirm” their bank account information.

“For Australians to remain vigilant and scam smart, it is important to be aware of what these phishing scams might look like this holiday season and what can happen when you open a phishing email,” Kho concluded.

Top tips on what phishing emails look like and what users should be wary of:

• Weak salutation: Many types of phishing, including the standard “deceptive phishing,” cast a wide net. As such, the email won’t be personalized with the recipient’s name but instead will greet you with something vague, such as “Dear Customer,” or maybe even their email username. Official correspondences from legitimate companies will address customers by name. However, cyber criminals can parse email addresses to figure out victims’ first and last names, if these are included in the email address.
• Offers that can’t be refused: If an offer or deal seems too good to be true, that’s probably because it is. 
• Immediate action required: Phishers are big on urgency. This tactic can be more successful during big shopping events like Black Friday, as limited-time offers are expected.
• Shortened or misspelled links: Malicious links often hide behind link-shortening services. Cyber criminals also host spoofed versions of legitimate sites with almost identical URLs, and they’ll encourage people to click these links in their phishing emails. Attackers also try to deceive people with typosquatting, using a slightly incorrect version of the legitimate URL — or deliberate misspellings that use similar-looking letters and characters.
• Poor writing: A bank isn’t going to send out an email with typos and grammatical mistakes. A phisher, on the other hand, can and often will. Careless errors like these are signs of a phishing email.
• Attachments: There’s nothing wrong with attachments in general — if people expect them and come from a trusted source. Scammers can even hide malware in rich-content files like PDFs. In many cases, attackers use attachments with double extensions like .doc.exe.
• Personal information requested: Phishers are after data. Therefore, they send emails asking people to confirm their account info, login credentials, or other personal information.
• Appear to be from a company or service not used by the recipient: Phishers don’t usually have access to the user databases of the companies they impersonate, so they blast their phishing emails out to anyone they can find. People should be especially wary of emails from services they don’t use claiming account issues, or billing issues, for example.

International markets for wool and cotton have seen much volatility through the course of 2022 – with the lingering impacts of COVID and escalated geopolitical and economic uncertainty affecting the trade – and the year ahead could be equally turbulent, agribusiness banking specialist Rabobank says in a new industry podcast.

Speaking on the podcast, Turbulent 2022 for Cotton and Wool Prices, Rabobank associate analyst Edward McGeoch said local and global extreme weather events have significantly impacted cotton production while Australian wool production is on the rise.

Year in review – Cotton

There has been a lot of fluctuation with cotton prices through 2022, Mr McGeoch said.

“Cotton prices opened well off the back of strong performances in 2021 – kicking off the year with a local price of roughly $740 per bale. And we saw the price trend up significantly to an 11-year high, with rises of 29 per cent to achieve just under $1000 per bale.

“Unfortunately, we have seen a steady decline from those high prices, which almost halved during the year, recovering slightly in recent months to sit at approximately $600 per bale.”

Speaking on the podcast with Rabobank agriculture analyst Dennis Voznesenski, Mr McGeoch said there were a number of factors “playing into” the dramatic cotton price fluctuations seen through 2002.

“Reduced global production being one of the chief drivers of the market volatility,” he said. “The US cotton crop has been affected by ongoing drought conditions – particularly in Texas, one of the major cotton-producing states.

“Retail sales have also been strong off the back of COVID lockdowns and cotton mills have been very active in the market – driving prices up.

“Global container logistics also played a role in the cotton price fluctuations, with high container rates and uncertainty about delivery times, which led to some over buying and ordering from cotton mills to ensure they had a continuity of supply.”

Year in review – Wool

Mr McGeoch said Australian wool producers – like cotton growers – had experienced similar volatile market conditions throughout the course of the year.

“The Eastern Market Indicator (EMI) climbed significantly through the first half of 2022 to reach a high of approximately 1474 cent/kg,” he said. “And subsequently we have seen the EMI slide back by roughly 20 per cent from those high prices seen earlier in the year.”

Mr McGeoch said within the various wool micron ranges – there have been significant drops in prices paid for the finer micron wools, with falls between six to 15 per cent since the beginning of the year. “There were slight increases for some mid-micron wools. But the biggest price drops, of up to 30 per cent, have been in the higher micron type wools. Looking at prices across the last 10 years, some of those high-micron wools are at their lowest price for that period,” he said.

Mr Voznesenski said there is a range of factors contributing to the price decline for high- micron wools. “Including when the Chinese property market slows down and there is a reduced need for carpeting – a major market for high-micron wool.

“High micron wool is also used in the production of fake-fur, and when there was a downturn in the demand for fake-fur during COVID this affected the market for the courser types of wool,” he said.

Mr McGeoch said falling international consumer confidence in major wool markets, such as China and the US, through 2022 is the major factor behind the downturn in Australian wool prices.

“International retail apparel sales drive the Australian wool market and while there was a strong start to the year, growing international economic uncertainty has seen a negative effect on the sale of wool apparel and hence local prices,” he said.

“Key markets for wool suits – US, Japan and France – have seen reduced product appetite with sales down between 20 and 50 per cent.      

“And the long COVID lockdowns in China through the year have affected the country’s wool milling capacity and saw reduced demand for Australian wool.”

Production outlook – Cotton

Mr McGeoch said there have been recent industry adjustments made to the 2023 production outlook – globally and locally, due to weather events.

“US production was down this year by roughly 3.5 million bales due to drought conditions. And flooding and heatwaves in Pakistan during the year saw a reduction in the nation’s cotton production of approximately 1.5 million bales.”

Looking at the Australian cotton production outlook, Mr McGeoch said, the sector is coming off a very strong 2021/22 season of around 5.75 million bales – a big increase on the previously drought-impacted years.

Australia’s production estimate for 2022/23 was around six million bales, however, the excessive rainfall and flooding in southern Queensland and across cotton-growing areas of New South Wales has put a “serious dint” in the outlook for the 2022/23 production season, he said.

Mr McGeoch said Rabobank is now expecting to see a cotton harvest next year of under five million bales due to the impacts of the wet weather.

Production outlook – Wool

“Since 2019, we have seen the Australian sheep flock recover in numbers, following years of drought – the increased sheep numbers have subsequently contributed to a lift in wool production,” Mr McGeoch said.

“In 2021, Australian wool production was approximately 294 million kilograms which we saw increase in 2022 to around 324 million kilograms.

“Through the course of this year, there has been a growth in wool production in Queensland and Tasmania – with sheep numbers increasing in Queensland and improved seasons seen in Tasmania.”

New markets

New export destinations for Australian wool and cotton are opening up in 2023, Mr McGeoch said.

“In October 2020, China imposed a soft-ban on Australian cotton imports, and at the time Australia was sending a significant amount of cotton to that market – around 66 per cent of cotton exports,” he said. “There was then an urgent need to look for alternate markets and now in 2022, we’ve seen Vietnam emerge as a key new market – with the largest growth in demand for Australian cotton – with that nation now importing approximately 38 per cent of Australian cotton exports.”

Australian cotton exports to India have also jumped dramatically with 13 per cent now going to that market – compared with four per cent in 2020, Mr McGeoch said. “And Turkey has also emerged as a new market, taking roughly 10 per cent of Australian cotton exports this year.”

For Australian wool exports, Mr McGeoch said there is still a heavy reliance on the Chinese market – with approximately 80 per cent of the national wool clip going to China.

“We are seeing recent growth of some smaller markets for Australian wool – not to the same extent as in cotton markets – however, India is now accounting for five per cent of Australia’s total wool exports. That is a 40 per cent increase on 2021 exports to the country – which is considerable growth off the back of COVID disruptions.”

Mr Voznesenski said in recent years, Turkey, Vietnam and Indonesia have been purchasing and importing textile spinning and weaving machinery which will further open up these markets for Australian wool and cotton imports.

Grant Thornton’s retail industry group reports predictions of strong consumer spending and a return to stores have come true after the Black Friday weekend, although not to the extent retailers were expecting.

Black Friday sales data shows Australian consumers have spent $4.97b in global sales, well below the forecast $6.2b, representing a 17 per cent increase on last year. Grant Thornton’s retail team noted this change in how consumers are spending shows people are seeking value for money as household discretionary spending becomes tighter.

“We saw shoppers bring forward their Christmas spending to November, leveraging promotional activities. Consumers are making increasingly considered purchase decisions for bargains to save in the long run,” said Tyson Dujela, Retail Industry Group partner.

According to the data, the average cart price increased over Black Friday weekend, rising from $163.28 per transaction in 2021 to $167.99 this year.

This year Grant Thornton noted buying behaviour shifting, with consumers returning to stores, making the most of their shopping experience after lengthy pandemic and lockdown-induced waiting periods, with the data showing a 29 per cent increase to in-store point of sale – or offline, bricks-and-mortar sales – compared to 2021.

“This shows consumers still want store experiences as they create an engaging, touch and feel, customer service driven retail experience with the instant gratification of buying products in person,” said Tyson Dujela. “The trend our retail industry group saw of consumers returning to stores isn’t to say that the online experience isn’t just as important. In this era of omnichannel retailing, retailers need to provide a consistent experience across all touchpoints – spanning from online channels to stores.”

Similarly, Salesforce’s Connected Shoppers Report shows poor customer experiences can be detrimental to businesses, with 80 per cent of shoppers abandoning a retailer after three bad experiences.

Reflecting on 2022 more broadly, this year was not immune to disruption. Retail, like most sectors, was impacted by price inflation, a tight labour market, cost pressures and a reduction in promotional activity.

Grant Thornton’s Retail Industry Group predicts this sentiment may not continue into 2023, as consumers who held record level household balance sheets a year ago are now more cautious with their spending as inflation, rising interest rates and impacts on the cost of living are front of mind, inevitably affecting retailers across all sub-sectors.

“We predict shoppers of high-end retailers may start going to more affordable stores if businesses don’t put measures in place to retain customers. Consumers are projected to reduce discretionary spending, prioritise essential goods and discount options,” continued Tyson Dujela. “To combat impacts of changing spending habits, we encourage retailers to plan inventory carefully and consider how demand will impact your products.”

In addition, shoppers have in recent years become increasingly conscious of making sustainable purchase decisions, considering values and businesses impacts on the planet and communities. However, expected changes to discretionary spending may influence increasingly price-sensitive consumers to prioritise price over responsible purchases, therefore affecting outlet and product choices.

As merchants are adapting to an ever-evolving industry with online ordering and ecommerce expanding in retail and hospitality, Epson announced the fastest POS receipt printer in the industry¹ – the TM-T88VII.

As the latest model in Epson’s most popular TM-T88 series POS printer line which has sold millions of units across the globe, TM-T88VII offers lightning-fast print speeds and flexible connectivity between multiple devices to help merchants – particularly in high-volume industries such as hospitality, retail and grocery – deliver the best customer experience in virtually every environment.

Epson Australia MD, Craig Heckenberg, said, “What do Coles, Bunnings, Woolworths, 7 Eleven and so many other household brands have in common with Epson? It’s the TM-T88 receipt printer, now celebrating over 25 years. The TM-T88 series is the workhorse of Epson’s receipt printer line. It’s sleek design and legendary reliability has earned it an important role in the Australian retail landscape, if not globally. Now in its seventh generation, the Epson TM-T88VII is a quiet achiever. Almost always hidden from view, you’ve probably never realised your shopping experiences over the last couple of decades have more than likely involved a TM-T88 series printer and will now likely involve a TM-T88VII.”

The TM-T88VII is the easiest and fastest T88-series product to configure and deploy. The new model delivers fast print speeds up to 500 mm/sec¹ and a high-speed auto cutter, as well as a long printhead and auto cutter life² and a four-year warranty for advanced reliability.

The TM-T88VII can be dynamically shared with fixed PC-POS terminals as well as mobile devices and cloud servers at the same time. With the vertical mounting kit, the printer has flexible configuration options and can connect to almost any system with built-in Ethernet and USB, along with options including Serial, Parallel, Powered USB, and Wi-Fi®.

The TM-T88VII has streamlined the setup process with an improved Epson TM Utility app – available on both PC and mobile devices – which includes a new simple set up tool for easy configuration and deployment of new printers. In addition, the Epson TM Utility app enables integrators to seamlessly upgrade from prior T88 models to the TM-T88VII without losing pre-configured settings and disrupting existing workflows.

As e-commerce and online ordering continues to skyrocket, the TM-T88VII is online order ready and can retrieve orders from a web server and print from web-based applications using Epson’s ePOS™ Print Technology or utilise Server Direct Print technology without installing any additional hardware or POS software integration. Users can easily and securely print as the TM-T88VII offers support for the latest WPA3 Wi-Fi security standard.

The fastest POS receipt printer Epson TM-T88VII key features include:

• Ultra-fast transaction times – industry-leading print speeds up to 500 mm/sec¹ and high-speed auto cutter
• Reliability you can count on – 4-year warranty; easy-to-clean, water-resistant enclosure; long printhead and auto cutter life²
• Connect to multiple devices simultaneously – using multiple interfaces, printer can be dynamically shared by PC-POS terminals, tablets, and mobile devices as well as cloud servers
• Multi-interface support – built-in USB and Ethernet, optional Serial, Powered USB, Parallel and Wireless connectivity ensure maximum flexibility and futureproofing
• Secure wireless connection – supports the latest Wi-Fi® security standard (WPA3)
• Online ordering ready – Server Direct Print technology allows the printer to retrieve orders from a web server and print a receipt without requiring POS software integration
• POS peripheral support – supports POS peripherals including barcode scanners, customer displays, and more
• Easy setup and configuration – streamline the setup and replacement processes using Epson TM Utility; vertical mounting kit provides flexible configuration options
• Easy to understand – status LEDs and network diagnostic sheet improve on-site network troubleshooting
• Backwards compatible – fully compatible with the existing TM-T88V and TM-T88VI software and same footprint
• Advanced paper-saving functions – top-margin and character-height reduction features help reduce paper usage by up to 49 percent³

The TM-T88VII thermal receipt printer is available from www.epson.com.au and all Epson authorised channel partners for the RRP of AUD$745.00 including GST.

The majority of Australian knowledge-based employees feel that they are expected to work through Christmas holiday period, despite managers encouraging them to take time out, according to new research from digital HQ provider, Slack. Its findings reveal worryingly mixed messages from management about their expectations around time off during Christmas holiday period.

The study, “Holiday Season Survey”, of over 2,000 Australian office workers explores employees’ ability to switch off for the upcoming holiday season and the impact on workers and businesses.

Survey respondents reveal that the majority (84%) of managers say they will actively encourage employees to switch off during the holiday season, with a similar number (78%) being concerned that the pressure to be constantly available for work could lead to burnout among their employees. At the same time, 73% of Aussie bosses say there is at least some expectation for employees to be available over the holidays.

As a result, 67% of Aussie employees plan to be online during the festive season and 44% say they will be checking their work-related messages even when they have time off. These mixed messages mean that more Aussies are planning to take a ‘work-cation’ this year over the Christmas period potentially not getting the switch off time that they need. However, the survey highlights how those leaning into a flexible approach to work, supported by collaborative platforms are better placed to help staff unwind and stay productive.

Nicole Woodley, Country Manager, Australia and New Zealand, Slack said, “Many of us are still feeling the effects of the pandemic, and calendars are still being stacked full of meetings, meaning work is being pushed to early mornings and late into the night. People need a break and in today’s modern workplace, digital tools, like Slack, can help tame the overload by helping automate work and enabling better practices that managers can adopt.

“Executives need to lead by example when it comes to setting boundaries, and not respond to Slack messages and email, enabling workers to do the same when they take vacations, or even when we’re taking the kids to school. Otherwise, employees will likely vote with their feet and look for employers where they don’t just feel like a commodity, or move into quiet quitting mode, both of which have a clear impact on productivity.”

Medical practitioner and board-certified lifestyle medicine physician, Dr Jenny Brockis, said, “We know tired brains don’t think or operate well, which is why taking proper time off is a necessity not a nice to have, especially if we’re to get serious about reducing and preventing the modern workplace maladies of stress-related illness, physical illness including high blood pressure and heart disease, mental health challenges and burnout.

“As humans, we are more productive, more creative, and effective and let’s face it, nicer to be around when not struggling with overwork, chronic fatigue or stretched to beyond capacity, and this can only be achieved through having sufficient downtime to rest, relax, and restore. That’s why time off needs to be honoured, not diluted with justifications around needing to tie up loose ends, play catch up or to meet the expectation of others. It’s time to stop kidding ourselves that we don’t need a break over the holiday season. Everyone does.”

Naughty: Everyone wants to avoid burnout but nobody is doing enough to prevent it

Looking back to last Christmas, despite being off, over half of Aussie employees were contacted by their manager (52%), a colleague (55%) or a customer (52%) during their break. But who is to blame?

Despite good intentions, only one in four managers has no expectation of their employees to be available during their booked vacation and 7 in 10 managers (71%) of managers are expecting employees to check work-related messages during their holidays. The key reasons given for expecting staff availability are that customers expect it (64%), there are important tasks/projects that need driving forward (64%), that their employer expects it (62%) and that the manager themselves will be available and expects it (61%). 

While office workers did give similar answers to managers as to why they would be available, not all of the impetus comes from their employers. Over three quarters (78%) say that it is due to their own drive or that it is important to them personally to work, that they will be able to work with fewer distractions (75%), that they are saving their holiday allowance for a different time of the year (73%), they have too much work to do (69%), they find it hard to switch off (69%), they’ve used all of their holiday allowance (61%) or they feel guilty seeing others working (61%).

However, helping employees to establish clear boundaries is critical, especially as almost a third (30%) of employees says it takes them more than three days to switch off during the holidays.

Many colleagues are worried that the pressure of being constantly available will lead to burnout (56%), seeing  73% of supportive colleagues encouraging coworkers to switch off during the holidays.

Nice: Leaning into technology and flexibility reaps rewards

When it comes to looking for a new role, the survey also revealed that three quarters of Australian employees are prioritising digital infrastructure and vacation policies that allow them to work how and when they want over other factors.

According to the findings, 78% of Aussie employees believe having good digital infrastructure is key to balancing work and private life, with 77% saying that it makes it easier to show managers, co-workers and customers that they’re on holiday and not to be disturbed. Notifications and statuses are two reasons for this; the majority (65%) of employees plans to keep their notifications on, while 64% plan to use a status to set expectations about their availability to work.

The research also found differences between those employees with flexible working arrangements and full-time office workers – while about half (55%) of workers with a hybrid work model say they will be available to work, this number rises to nearly three quarters (72%) for those who normally work full time in the office. And more office-based workers (70%) plan to keep their notifications on compared to those with a flexible approach to work (53%).  Perhaps as a result, 61% of predominantly office-based workers shared that they are feeling more stressed about being available at all times, compared to those that work in a hybrid manner (46%).

Research Methodology

The survey was conducted among 2,001 office workers in Australia. The interviews were conducted by YouGov between 17th – 24th November, 2022, via an email with a link.

• Leadership and the war for talent (Australia, November 2022)
• Executives feel the strain of leading in the ‘new normal’Future Forum Pulse (Global, October 2022)
• Desire for flexibility intensifies among knowledge workers–and they’re willing to walk to get it Future Forum Pulse (Global, July 2022)
• The Reinvention of Work (Australia, October 2021)

Australia’s retail and hospitality businesses are set for their biggest Christmas on record, with shoppers expected to splurge nearly $64 billion over the pre-holiday period, according to a recent report by the Australian Retailers Association (ARA). 

While increased sales may bring relief to small business owners who have dealt with months of low Consumer Confidence and rising costs, the rise in foot traffic could bring with it more risk, warns small business expert Jane Mason.

“The holiday season is the busiest time of the year for many small businesses. As people flood through their doors, it’s easy for small business owners to become overwhelmed and miss critical risks – especially for those still dealing with chronic labour shortages,” says Mason.

While the labour crisis has impacted nearly every sector in Australia, shortages have been most acute in hospitality and retail, with each sector needing 102,000 and 46,000 workers, respectively.

As Christmas fast approaches, small business owners are left with a Catch-22 situation: they desperately need skilled workers to keep up with the anticipated demand, but the available pool could be a liability in the workplace.

“Untrained employees can be a drag on a small business at the best of times, affecting productivity and the safety of customers… but many don’t have a choice,” says Mason.

“While it may be tough right now, there is one thing you can do – ensure your business is protected from the risks it faces this festive season and the new year ahead.”

What are the risks?

Small business owners will have to contend with an influx of customers this holiday period.

For hospitality businesses, that means hosting Christmas parties, family get-togethers and end-of-year work functions, while retailers will need to prepare for hordes of customers picking out gifts.

Both situations, combined with untrained employees, invite the possibility of an increase in accidents.

Small business owners have a legal responsibility to ensure their staff and members of the public are safe.

“Imagine if a customer tripped over some new Christmas merchandise and was hurt in your store. Do you have a plan in place to protect your business from the consequences of that situation?” says Mason.

“Don’t let an unfortunate accident damage your business’ finances and reputation. Now is the time to ensure your Public Liability insurance is up to date.”

Australians are also increasingly jumping online for their Christmas shopping, with one-third indicating they bought gifts online last year, according to a Savvy survey.

The ARA is expecting a similar theme this Christmas, while Australia Post is ramping up its efforts after delivering a record 52 million parcels between Black Friday and Christmas Day last year.

Mason says If your business is sending out a large number of orders during Christmas time, you should also consider insurance for goods in transit.

“Loss or damage caused by collision, natural disaster, or theft in some defined events is typically included,” she says. “You can’t always prevent things from going wrong, but you can make sure you are covered.”

“Accidents are often an inevitable part of life and can still happen no matter how much you prepare for them,” says Mason. “Protect your business today to avoid potential pain later down the road.”

Australian milk price’s rapid rise – based on the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) data – with milk prices having risen at the fastest rate since records began, according to a new report by agribusiness banking specialist Rabobank. 

In its Global Dairy Quarterly Q4 2022 – Walking the Tightrope into 2023, Rabobank says while the Australian consumer has shown resilience in the face of cost-of-living pressures, signs of dairy demand weakness are emerging as a willingness and ability to spend on discretionary items softens.

“Households are trading down to private label offerings, with volume declines in grocery and foodservice channels being more evident – it looks set to be a tough year ahead for Australian consumers,” report co-author Michael Harvey, senior analyst for Dairy and Consumer Foods at Rabobank, said.

“For Australia’s dairy producers, farmgate margins remain positive and are supported by the record milk prices,” Mr Harvey said. “Average farmgate milk prices across Australia’s Southern Export regions range between AUD 9.50-10.00/kgMS.

“The high milk prices have mostly offset major cost headwinds – fertiliser, fuel and feed – for dairy farmers. While labour availability remains a major challenge for dairy farming businesses.”

Mr Harvey said Rabobank is not expecting further major lifts in milk prices as the season draws to a close.

Production

Rabobank is revising its milk production forecast downward for 2022/23, with the impact of production constraints, the result of flooding and excessive rainfall, becoming visible in the peak production months – October and November. The report said as of October, Australian milk production is down 6.6 per cent for the season to date, with widespread decreases across all states/regions.

“A wet summer is in play across much of eastern Australia– driven by the La Nina in the tropical Pacific Ocean and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD),” Mr Harvey said. “And many dairy production regions on Australia’s east coast have been dealing with excessive rainfall and flooding.

“There has been significant feed and fodder losses as a result of the rain and flooding – it is one of the key challenges faced by impacted farms. Some supply chain/logistics issues have been reported as a result of the wet weather – including some dumping of milk – but not to the point of having a material impact on milk processing,” he said.

Dairy farmers can look forward to access to plenty of supplementary feed in the months ahead. Rabobank is expecting a large winter wheat crop, with harvest now underway – albeit somewhat delayed by rain and flooding.

Exports

Australia’s dairy exports continue to grow despite falling milk supply. Mr Harvey said this is supported by improvements in global freight markets and normalising consumer behaviour – post COVID – across export markets in Asia.

“Australia’s total dairy export volumes (tonnage) were four per cent higher in the first two months of 2022/23 season. However, it was a mixed bag – liquid milk exports are running strong, but it has been a slow start for cheese and whey,” he said.

Global outlook

Weaker global dairy markets remain a key theme as 2022 comes to a close, the report says.  But there is clear divergence between regions and dairy products.

The Rabobank report says cheese and butter prices in the US and EU have performed the best, while Oceania Global Dairy Trade (GDT) powder and butter prices have been on the decline. Oceania skim milk powder (SMP) prices led the way, dropping 14 per cent on average from Q3 2022 end prices and plummeting 34 per cent since the peak in early Q2 2022.

The second half of 2022 has tested dairy’s affordability for importing countries. “China remains conspicuously quiet on the buying front compared to last year as it digests local inventories and imported stock,” the report said. “The US dollar lifted by six per cent on a broad dollar index basis at its peak during Q3, before eroding much of the gains by mid-November. Yet, weaker US dollar-priced dairy commodities have incentivised tier two and tier three buyers to return to the market, taking the opportunity to refill inventory pipelines as tourism returns and hospitality recovers.”

Rabobank expect the global milk supply ‘recession’ experienced for the past five consecutive quarters to end, with production having progressively declined over that period. “Q4 2022 brought another period of weather-disrupted production to Oceania. But traces of life from the global export engines are sprouting, driven by Europe and the US. Rabobank expects milk supply will gain modest momentum in 2023 from most regions apart from Australia” it said.

Milk production from the big seven dairy exporting regions – New Zealand, Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, EU, US and Australia – is anticipated to grow by one per cent year-on-year, enough to offset the 0.8 per cent decrease in 2022 and remain on par with 2021’s production, the report said.

Meanwhile, consumption growth in some export regions is becoming more challenging as consumers juggle significant price increases in the dairy cabinet. “Dairy demand in the US has remained defiant in the face of cost-of-living challenges, while European consumers are now feeling the pinch at the retail level. Some resilience in Southeast Asia is evident, but smaller sales volumes and downstream margin pressure illustrate the headwinds,” the report said.

Rabobank analysts say all eyes remain fixed on China, “Buying patterns will remain subdued across 1H 2023 if rolling lockdowns remain a feature, milk production continues to be set on growth mode, and consumption wavers as challenging economic conditions take hold. China is likely to re-enter markets in Q2 with a bigger presence from Q3 2023 onward,” the report said.

As we move into the silly season and plan our next holidays, many business owners are under increasing pressure to plan and prepare for the swath of people that rush to their businesses over the warmer months. To assist with this we will look at 5 strategies to be more profitable.

With the rise of discretional spending across the economy, more people are travelling domestically than ever before and have a record level of savings built up from the pandemic, and as such,  this year will no doubt be another busy year for Australian small businesses working in the hospitality, tourism and entertainment sectors as holidaymakers rush to cafes, drink at their local watering holes and try to entertain their kids.

Although this time can be extremely busy, the cash made during this period will typically fund the business year-round and is used to hire employees, maintain inventory and services, amp up marketing efforts and ensure there is enough cash in the bank to get them to the end and prepare for the following year. As a result, many seasonal businesses will fail to take advantage of the opportunity, being temporarily cash rich, but failing to grow due to a lack of consistent cash flow.

But what if it didn’t have to be this way?

Taking advantage of the opportunity on offer takes considered planning, preparation and awareness of the options available to each business. Here are a few things businesses can do to make the most of the silly season and ensure they’re growing their businesses to meet demand during peak periods.

Five strategies to be more profitable:

Understand and manage cashflow

As a business owner, you always need to understand and manage your cash flow and expenses, but this is especially important for seasonal businesses. Once you understand your offseason costs and fluctuations, look for ways to minimise or cut business expenses by restructuring working capital, streamlining accounts and financing the purchase of equipment that will be profitable to your business through loans. Every dollar saved in quieter periods can be used to invest in new equipment and staff that can help make the most of the opportunity in busier periods.

Ensure you have the right cashflow solution for your business to meet growing demand, purchase stock / inventory and hire new employees. As a starting point, look into invoice financing, working capital loans, trade and asset finance.

Use the quiet time to plan for the busy season

Using quieter periods to strategise for the year ahead is a key exercise that most business owners and management should partake in. You can start by evaluating the previous peak season data and surveying staff, seeing what improvements could be made to streamline service and product delivery such as planning for new upgrades, maintenance and new processes to improve efficiency.

Diversify income streams

When diversifying your income stream, you want to choose a venture that you can utilise using the same people and equipment you have for your core business, reducing overhead costs and making it easy to leverage your current customer base to market to. This will save you time and money when starting, which is important for cashflow. Additionally, look for ideas that offset off-seasons and build upon our current offering to better serve your customers to build a consistent and more reliable revenue stream. This will create new income sources to fuel the lulls throughout the off-season.

Plan staffing and employee training in advance for your busier periods

Business owners already have a plethora of tasks to do and sometimes delegating can be the hardest task of them all. Training staff is a crucial process to taking the stress off owners during busy periods and planning out these activities will make your business more autonomous during busy periods. This might include calculating the ideal number of customers to retain, adjusting the training process to meet new processes, ordering new equipment or investing in automation of tasks to reduce headcount which can quickly pay itself off within a matter of years. If taking this approach, start a week earlier as a trial run so you can smooth out new processes and maximise efficiencies.

Customer Relations

In slower times it is a great opportunity to maintain contact with your customers. Strengthening relationships with repeat customers can help ensure they return to your business using loyalty offerings, marketing activities to lure them in the off-season and targeting them during shoulder season or in the lead up to peak periods. It is also the perfect time to focus on prospective customers in preparation for your peak season.

So, if you’re a small business owner worried about the upcoming rush, use some of the tips above to plan out the next couple of months. It could be a profitable exercise!

Written by Rael Ross, Co-Founder and Co-CEO of Butn